RadioRote: Russia. Ukraine. NATO. Naval Contemplation

RR Shortness of Breadth


We shared our view with Readers since this early decade how Russia will work on regaining its former colonies. In fact, with Russia losing 700,000 people a year in a demographic shift that threatens the future of Russians as a people due to ill health, aging, and emigration -- controlling their former colonies is necessary from their viewpoint, or disappear.

RadioRote also correctly forecasted in 2002 that Russia could expect a spate of terrorist attacks on their soil due to the war in Chechnya -- that is to say with the exception of bombings and kidnappings in Russia stemming from organized crime. Russia had become hit with terrorism within its borders.

In Chechnya's case, Russia understood how important a re-unified Russia-Georgia means to their survival or, at least, a neutralized Georgia. For Russia to rein in Chechnya, they theoretically have to back themselves up to the Turkish border as a way to squeeze Chechens.

Russia's political forays into Georgia's South and North Ossetia are such an indication. Both Ossetian areas were once in conflict with each other and then decided to join. Once they grew closer, they discussed becoming a part of Russia. When Georgia protested this move by Moscow into their territory, the Kremlin’s response was, in so many words, "are you looking to escalate this into a formal conflict?"

We knew that Russia was not in great shape by first world standards to physically re-take a country (and given the challenges the US faces in other parts of the world, it should be less surprising), but we also know that Russia's former colonies are in worse shape. Further they are economically and geographically closer to Russia than Belgium or the US.

Whereas the Black Sea Region connects Russia with some of its former colonies, the Ukraine is a land gateway. With NATO presence in the Black Sea, Russia's options become complicated.

Map: My Travel Guide. com

Click map for enlarged view.

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For the Ukraine, the stakes are higher given the natural resources and geography it affords Russia. The Ukraine is the gateway for Romania, the Black Sea, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. In short, a good number of former Warsaw Pact countries. Whereas Turkey covers the southern part of the Black Sea, the Ukraine makes up the northern sea coast. Should NATO and Western countries dominate the Black Sea and extend an invitation to the Ukraine to become a member, Russia stands the chance of becoming shut off by land and sea from easier access into colonies once affiliated the Soviet Union.

There are political considerations between Russia and Ukraine which are long standing, though hardly considered anything close to a Kastor and Polix friendship.

Orion and Scorpius perhaps, but nothing of brotherly love.

Despite the 'warm friendship' gained from the Putin-Yushchenko joint agreement in defense and business, Mr. Yushchenko decided to create a more encompassing strategic and economic relationship with the West.

The Kremlin, particularly Mr. Putin, finds Mr. Yushchenko, to be a pain in Moscow’s side. Mr. Yushchenko literally finds the Kremlin to be a pain as there have been rumors the large amount of dioxon poison found in Mr. Yushchenko had Russian involvement.

Having won leadership and turning the Ukraine's back on Russia after the Orange Revolution, Mr. Yushchenko now finds the momentum of the revolution waning with groups in his country having second thoughts about their future -- or his in power. The country is home to circa 17% of Russians who constitute the largest minority. Many reside in the Black Sea Peninsula where the US, NATO, and Ukraine naval venture is to take place.

Further indications of this backlash are occurring as NATO and the US are planning on taking part in Naval maneuvers called Sea Breeze 2006, with the Ukraine. Protesters blocked the USS Advantage's entry into the Port of Feodosia and followed the US and NATO land convoys through parts of Northwest Crimea, a heavily populated Russian area, forcing the convoy and buses to find other cities to stay in, but were rebuffed from entering other back-up cities due to blockades and protests, with demonstrators yelling their "future was with Russia" and "Russia is our friend."

The Black Sea peninsula is home to a large ethnic Russian population and its main port, Sevastopol, which is circa 100 miles from Feodosia, is the naval port shared by Russia and the Ukraine. Hence, another reason why tensions runhigh.

The anti-NATO protest is taking place during a critical moment for Ukraine's unstable government, which is in the midst of coalition building process or on the verge or dissolving. It has yet to vote upon accepting NATO and the US forces into their territories and probably will avoid making that decision in the near future. The Feodosiya municipal council declared the area a 'no-NATO zone" and protestors surrounded the areas where the US marines and NATO troops are staying.

NATO was quick to point that although its troops are involved in Sea Breeze 2006, it is not a NATO sponsored event and the USS Advantage is not a NATO ship, and they take no responsibility for the US-Ukraine naval venture -- they claim to be only participants in the US - Ukraine naval activity. It is NATO's ‘strategic re-deployment’ and their way of 'backing off.'

Further, the Ukraine government initially misinformed their citizens by claiming the USS Advantage was entering the harbor to drop of Humvees and related supplies. The government later re-tracted this first claim and stated it was Ukraine's desire to become involved with US and NATO plans -- which did not endear the people to Yushchenko.

There are several reasons why only 20% of the Ukraine agrees with membership in NATO:

a) They are afraid that NATO will interfere with areas near the Ukraine, such as the Transdnestrian region, and will cause a political destabilization and boundary fragmenting -- as they perceive was the case with NATO's involvement with Kosovo.

b) The Ukraine manufactures weapons for Russia, the CIS, Southeast Asia and Russian friendly countries in Africa involved in conflicts (not to mention a healthy illegal gun running industry) . Their legal weapon sale in 2005 was up 5% to $680 million (USD). Membership in NATO may cut these contracts. The West would not purchase their weapons. Further, the transformation of weapon upgrades for the Ukraine in becoming NATO ready would be enormous. The Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe.

c) The US still owes millions of dollars (USD) to the Ukraine for use of their air space. The Bush Administration has become a deadbeat debtor for these services, whereas Europe has been more responsible in paying these debts. Joining NATO would lessen the Ukraine's ability of receiving funding for future NATO flyovers.

d) The protestors, and majority of Ukrainians, argue that allowing US and NATO troops on their soil was never debated as part of Yushchenko's platform during the election. Their Orange Revolution, they say, was meant to open dialogue between people, not to allow their government to set up policy at whim.

e) There is a disrust that NATO membership benefits only NATO. As long as the Ukraine is not antagonizing Russia, the anti-NATO groups counter, towards whom must the Ukraine stay on guard against regarding hostile nations?

Those from the West who oppose the Ukraine's membership into NATO, believe the longstanding relationship Russia had with the Ukraine, could color NATO's trust regarding Kyiv's intentions.

Mr. Yushchenko plans on passing a law allowing the joint naval activity to occur.

Making it into law is not the same as allaying Ukranian fear and reaction against foreign troops in their country. As we warned Readers in 2002, too much involvement in European countries by the EU will destroy the union in the Low Countries -- which is what occured. So we ask, is Sea Breeze 2006 only about a joint US, NATO, and Ukraine naval manuever -- or doubts about the future security and direction of the Ukraine post-Orange Revolution?

Should the naval manuevers be called off, it will be perceived as both a moral victory and political boon for Russia, a re-inforcement to further involve itself in Ukraine's affairs.

If the joint naval venture takes place, Russia will find itself considering an acceleration in the destabilization of the Yushchenko government. By taking advantage of a disgrunted populace and given the lull in the parliment, Kiev is rather vulnerable at the moment.

Either way, Russia has the upper hand, the Ukraine is at a disadvantage, and US-NATO forces may have to modify their current plan, being that they are in the middle of what has become a political gambit between two non-NATO countries.

The next few weeks will kick into gear the direction and relationship between the Ukraine and Russia for the next few years. It could become serious.

UPDATE: SINCE THIS RADIOROTE FORECAST, THE NAVAL EXCERCISE WAS CANCELLED, THE PRO-RUSSIAN PARTIES GAINED CONTROL OF THE UKRAINE, THE ORANGE REVOLUTION LOST MOMENTUM -- AND A SECURITY AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE UKRAINE WAS SIGNED WHEREAS RUSSIA HAS TAKEN THE UKRAINE BACK UNDER ITS SECURITY UMBRELLA, THROWING NATO ON ITS BACK BURNER.

WE HAVE BEEN STRONGLY POSITING THIS OUTCOME FOR MANY YEARS AND WILL CONSIDER IT ONE OF OUR SUCCESSFUL LONGITUDINAL FORECASTS.

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RadioRote: Canada. Driving Around Le Bloc Québécois

Canada is going to great lengths to extend its influence around the world. The country certainly has the resources and possibilities to do so. But is Canada doing so because it has come of age or, in part, to delay a domestic fight on its hands?

Stephen Harper, the Tory PM of Canada, has taken steps to toughen his country's foreign policy -- such as being one of the first nation's not to fund Hamas, committing Canada's sparse number of troops to Afghanistan, showing willingness to draw closer ties to the US, renewing NORAD without much debate, and a pledge to assist the US in the United Nations against Iran.

This policy bundle is all well and good, however, it is certainly a circuitous way to avoid its own domestic challenges.

Canada, as we discussed in earlier RadioRote Supplements, has the potential of becoming an even greater nation with more political weight. If merely based on its oil reserves, natural resources, standing in the world, brainpower, and accessibility to both oceans. A good start, but political will and the ability to back up policy with a clear identity of itself and future are a-priori in the development of a nation.

We earlier pointed out the Martin Administration began “feeling its Canadian oats” as an independent country by refusing to join in the US Star Wars initiative, threatening a trade war over the Bush Administration’s refusal to allow Canada’s soft lumber into the US at competitive prices (the current US ambassador to Canada, who only knew of Canada as the place that had those “falls”, came from a state which competed with Canada in the lumber trade), and thought twice about tightening its borders the way the US ordered them to do so.

But this sentiment was not only expressed in Ottawa. When Marc Emery was caught selling marijuana seeds across the border into the US, the Department of Justice wanted him extradited for selling “poison to our youth.” The Canadian government declined and the calls to the BBC supported the government’s refusal.

An editorial in the Globe and Mail followed suit. The general suggestion around Canada was that if the US was so incensed about some Canadian undermining the values of youth in the US by selling them seed, then the same Department of Justice would not mind if Canada extradited the owners of US gun manufactures as accessories to murder, due to a spate of hand gun killings were taking place in Toronto.

The Harper Administration recently took control of a minority Tory government in Canada, destined to return to the country to a weakened level. Riding the coat tails of the Bush Administration, the Tory leader prefers to retain a ‘tough guy’ image in the world by pointing to the White House and telling the world: “Yeah, we agree, whatever he said.”

The mood is that Mr. Emery will be extradited in December, given Mr. Harper’s willingness to do whatever the US requests, with the idea that the Bush Administration will suddenly remove the dim view it has of Canada when, in fact, Canada is ignored due to the dimness of US leadership in the White House. We shared with Readers how Mr. Bush thought Wales was a part of the US, but confessed he was not sure exactly in which State it was located.

Because the Harper Administration prefers to subsume Canadian identity under the auspices of the US, the Tory lead government is neither independent nor Canadian.

Part of its willingness to go throughout the world waving the US banner as a beacon of its own policies is because Canada is unwilling to come to grips with its own domestic challenges, which was an albatross around their neck well before the minority led party took office. Their insistent foreign stance is a circuitous route in avoiding a domestic entanglement in which they are snarled: the bloc Québécois.

In recent Canadian history, from the Meech Lake Accord under Mr. Mulroney to the political compromise of having Mr. Chrétien as PM (in order to avoid a Constitutional crisis) to the ensuing scandal and downfall over Mr. Chrétien’s illegal dealings with Quebec and the to keep them in line, the Canadian government moved closer in becoming a Belgian coat of many colours – or a quilt of potential separatists.

That is, in Belgium’s case, a polyglot of nationalities throughout distinct parts of the country and not much more – Belgium has foreign policy, but are they policies both the Walloon and Flemish sectors would agree to enforce if push came to shove?

What if the US states from New Mexico in the south to Idaho in the north decided to become an Axis, thus cutting of the coastal regions from the rest of the US? Thus, we find Canada’s quandary with Quebec – a potential time bomb blowing Canada up into a Belgian miscellany.

With this disengaged state of affairs, Canada’s foreign policy currently remains relevant as long as the US views it as such, and Canada pretends to retain its tough image. But, then, as far as the perception of Canada as an independent nation with a sound identity is concerned, is the tail wagging the dog?

Until Ottawa can both face and solve the bloc Québécois question by bringing the Province into the fold once and for all, even if it brings about a Constitutional crisis, which it may, then the best Canada can expect is to become a virtual powerhouse, dependent upon the approval of others.

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RadioRote: Potential Political Pratfalls in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Hamas, Canada

The coalition between tribes, or party members, or terrorist organizations, are based upon fragile foundations which go beyond funding and available resources. Sometimes it is based on the cult of the individual or a sense of community. Here are four such diverse examples.



RadioRote
Afghanistan

The Taliban in Afghanistan have been showing an upsurge in force, or perhaps it has caught the attention of the media more so since the Canadians have taken charge from the US and now a safer target for the US media to report upon.

RadioRote had lightly touched upon Afghanistan now and then over these past years if only to share with Readers how opium growing was on the rise; only large cities were protected by allied forces and convoys were used to protect material and personnel from town to town -- it is rather like the Saudi Royal family who may have more influence in some areas of their country, but not neccesarily everywhere.

The area particularly difficult for them to hold is around the Southern East region of Saudi Arabia. Whereas other parts are held by paying off tribal leaders.In Afghanistan, the South is still controlled by the Taliban and there are indications that certain tribes are sitting on the fence to wait and see which side to join.

There is a shift in perception amongst these tribes as to whether or not the Allies or the Taliban will hold the upper hand and, hence, more advantageous for them to join.

Whosoever holds the force and resources may win the day in Afghanistan or certain other types of tribal regions. But given the complexity and duplicity found in a tribal enviroment, shared values also plays a distinct role in deciding the outcome.

RadioRote
Pakistan

In the neighboring country of Pakistan, the Western Allies found a way to convince Mr. Musharraf to join in the coalition of the willing by threatening a nuclear standoff between Pakistan and India.

Although both have nuclear arsenals, Pakistan does not have a sophisticated delivery mechanism. It does, however, have the capability of delivering the means of production to others.

Mr. Musharaff has since fallen in his stature as Pakistan's leader and criticized by a spectrum of interested parties for failing to deliver in other ways.Afghanistan Leaders and the West have tried to put pressure upon Mr. Musharaff to quell any Taliban activity in the Southern part of his country which is suspected of organizing missions into Afghanistan.

The Pakistan Intelligence Agency, the ISI, has not been keen towards him as he has removed high intelligence officials and reined in the ISI -- due to their support of the Taliban.

Similar to Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan, the Southern part of Pakistan is a region unto itself and not controlled by Mr. Musharaff who would probably rather ignore, then deal with, it.RadioRote shared with Readers several years ago a report which indicated bin Laden was taking refuge in Southern Pakistan.

Given the circumstances it is both possible yet highly difficult to verfiy on its own merit.We can only expect Mr. Musharaff to continue bearing pressure from divergent and powerful groups who expect results. It is a difficult task for him to coordinate without greatly upsetting one side and changing the political balance of power.

Should Mr. Musharaff fall within a year, by election or forceful means, which is a good possibility given the circumstances, we do not expect the West to support his return -- if that is even an option.

RadioRote
HAMAS

On the subject of has-beens, the one name which comes to mind is Mr. Abbas, the heir-apparent of Yassir Arafat -- whose fortunes have waned since HAMAS was elected. It was a forced election by the Bush Administration who supported the PLO-Fatah Abbas. Therein started the accelerated reversal by default.

We may remind Readers of our cynicism when stating as a foundation of any Gaza run region, that two terrorist groups could not share the spoils in an area the size of Gaza. One had to go, before a brinksmanship between Israel and the dominant terrorist organization would either end in annihilation of one side, or a negotiated accord.

Such as this forecast is taking shape.

Recently Hamas unsuccessfully tried to assassinate Tareq Abu Rajab, an Abbas ally and chief security officer.Another attempted assassination of a key Abbas ally by HAMAS was against Rashid Abu Shbak who is in charge of the HAMAS ladened Interior Ministry, whose department includes security forces.

But attempts were not kept to cabinet officials.According to the Sunday Times (UK) of May, 07, 2006:

"A HAMAS plot to assassinate Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, has been thwarted after he was tipped off by Israeli intelligence.
Hamas’s military wing, the Izza Din Al-Qassem, had planned to kill Abbas at his office in Gaza, intelligence sources said."

As the plots against messer's Shbak and Rajab were unfolding, Israel assassinated an expert armament maker and commander of the Islamic Jihad, Momammed Dadouha.There were also gun battles between HAMAS and PLO-Fatah (ironically named) security units and weapons fired by these rival factions into demonstrating crowds and suspected partisan villages.

Further, HAMAS organized a 3,000 manned armed unit despite objections from Mr. Abbas. Whereas a new militia, calling itself the "New Fatah", demanded Mr. Abbas dissolve the HAMAS parliment and warned against any inside or outside groups from harming its organization.By inside, we assume they mean HAMAS. Or do they?

Now a group with alleged al-Qaeda ties claimed responsibility for the attempted assassination of the PLO-Fatah Chief Security Officer, Mr. Rajab.This brings us to another point. Whether or not the attempt was made by al-Qaeda. One shift HAMAS does not want to see occuring under their leadership is a foreign jihadist group to make waves for them.

Any indication that al-Qaeda penetrated Gaza will be anathema for HAMAS.A major goal of al-Qaeda is to, in fact, penetrate the West Bank and Gaza, which does not sit well for Jordan, Egypt, Israel, HAMAS or the PLO-Fatah.

It is interesting to note that throughout all this turmoil, neither PLO-Fatah or HAMAS blamed Israel. They have come to realize they cannot afford the luxury to do so in the cold reality they have come to understand. It is the bed they made through years of corruption and a terrorism cottage industry turned against itself.

HAMAS knows it needs allies and soon. RadioRote shared with Readers our viewpoint as to why HAMAS went to Russia -- to open sub-rosa communication with the world while the West could claim plausable deniabilty.The Arab Knesset member from Israel,Azmi Bishara, went on the proverbial fishing expedition when he met with Hamas Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar in Apri of 2006, and this was apparently not the only meeting between Arab members of the Israeli knesset and HAMAS representitives.

Both parties need to find a way to settle this issue, if possible -- to neutralize the PLO-Fatah and stave of foreign jihadists.

We believe, as we have for several years, that another political heavy weight will be added to this mix -- that of the popular terrorist Marwan Barghouti, who is serving time in an Israeli prison for mass murder; someone we believed would have replaced Yassir Arafat or in line thereafter.

As one high ranking military officer once told RadioRote: "Choosing which of two terrorists to negotiate with is like having to choose between the plague and malaria." He sounded resigned in having to make the inevitable choice.This does not neccesarily mean fighting between HAMAS and Israel will end as soon as they sit down to negotiate -- anymore than it does for any two parties at war and at a conference table. Nor does it mean parties bent on sabotaging negotiations will not hesitate in doing so.

At the beginning of of 2006, Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni met with then acting PM Olmert to discuss HAMAS. Mr. Livini stated that it was time to think hard about HAMAS and to explore all options.

At this interval, an ad-hoc understanding between them may be such option.Hamas and Israel, potential partners in peace, for the moment.

RadioRote
Canada

During the recent Canadian election, the current Tory PM, Stephen Harper was perceived as the candidate who wanted to start a better relationship with the Bush Administration and follow their lead in the areas of Star Wars, the Privatization of Health Care, and a Laissez-Faire Doctrine towards Corporations.

In the former government, the Liberal PM, Paul Martin the younger, acted cooly towards the US and refused to invest in their Star Wars project -- whereas the US sent an Ambassador to Canada who acted more like a missionary. To their bemusement, he talked down to Canadians as if they were the unwashed Bolshevik masses in need of a Capitalist Baptism.

Critics chided the Harper - Bush platform and labeled the Canadian PM a "Bush clone."Recently, the closeness they shared has become aloof and Mr. Harper does not want Mr. Bush to tell the world, or Canadians in particular, that he looked into Mr. Harper's eyes and got a sense of his soul as someone he can trust -- as was the para-normal examination Mr. Bush gave of Mr. Putin after their photo-op meeting.

As an aside, can someone who runs the "Evil Empire" have a soul? But we digress.

A June meeting between Messers Harper and Bush has been postponed on the excuse that no date was actually set anyway and no time is available between them even if they tried to do so. The non-meeting is now expected to take place in July.

The Bush Administration's recent meteoric rise in unpopularity (which RadioRote forecasted to hit 24% before his recent descent), gives Mr. Harper room to reflect.There are identifiable similarities between Messers Bush and Harper that the Canadian people and press have noticed. Both share a heightened sense of mistrust, to the point of dysfuntional, of information being allowed in or out about their Administration without their approval.

Further, both are highly sensitive towards anyone within their party who disagrees with their decisions -- and arranges tough responses against anyone around their circle who criticizes them, if merely once.In Mr. Harper's case, his influence extends from approving a minor speech given by a Tory minister, to what can be discussed by his party members with the press about Canada's direction. Both Messer's Bush and Harper are afraid of the media and would, like Mr. Musharaff and Southern Pakistan, rather pretend it does not exist if they can not control it.

But, given the lame duck Administration in the White House, Mr.Harper would like to extend his power grasp like an octopus, without playing into the squid's 'hands' of those who call him a Bush clone.

When asked about the similarities between Messer's Bush and Harper, a close associate to the Canadian PM stated that the two were not at all alike.The example of their differences rested in the fact, the associate said, that Mr. Harper was intelligent.

This, of course, means that when it comes to intelligence, the fellow in the White House is, well, in the bush leagues according to the Harper machine. Why then would a highly intelligent leader with a singular vision for Canada follow someone far less his equal and from another country who thought the name of the former Canadian PM was a food product named Poutine?

Quite a plausable denial until one thinks hard on it.

So here is another similarity between them: distancing oneself from a friend or ally when said friend or ally is in trouble.

Canada is , for the most part, a well educated country and polite society.They do not seem ready for a leader who runs a country based on his own romanticist ideas and strong arming measures.

RadioRote suspected Mr. Harper received advice from the Rove-esque faction on how to run an election campaign which was less than civil. There would be more booty for the corproate concubines once Mr Harper was in office.Now in power, he can create his own Canadian auto de fe.

Mr. Harper holds a lead of 38% in polling over the Liberal Party's 28%, with the NDP gaining 1 at 19%.One may merely think of the high polling rates Mr. Bush along the 80% range when RadioRote forecasted a warning, well-early on, of Mr. Bush and his impending fall to the 40's and 30's range based on the Administration's potential mishandling of the economy and Iraq.

This does not mean the Liberals will win big or even beat the NDP, but the direction Mr. Harper is taking Canada results in a higher than normal potential of leaving the Tory's out in the cold.

In recent past, when Canadians are angry at Liberals, they give the party a time out. When they are angry at Tories, they perform political genocide. It is the memory of the Mulroney election that Mr. Harper should recall, when all but two Tory members lost their seats in Parliment.

Should Mr. Harper continue to follow in the footsteps of Mr. Bush, he would have to snub Canada the way Mr. Bush has done throughout his term in office. Mr. Harper cannot be so intelligent if he does not understand the relationship between politics and vector analysis.

In other words, if he follows in the same footsteps of Mr. Bush, Mr. Harper could find his constituents less "inclined" to follow him any further down that same strewned rose petaled path.

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